Politicians have always been in charge of redistricting in North Carolina, and we had over a century of Democratic domination before the Rs took control in 2011. But the effects of political gerrymandering are worse now for two reasons.
Firstly, most of the time the Ds were in charge, the state was deep blue: when the D-R registration split is 65-35, the fact that the NCGA split is 85-15 is obviously unfair, but practically speaking, fixing that disparity would not make much difference. Now, however, the D-R split is close to 50-50, and either party having a 70-30 advantage in the NCGA is not just unreasonable, but it makes a huge political difference (as in veto-proof supermajority).
Secondly, powerful modern I/T tools enable district lines to be drawn with much more precision. Not only does this make it easier to draw maps that grossly favor one side or the other, but moving the line over a block or two to exclude a potential opponent from your district is feasible now. So, not only can politicians pick their own voters, but their own opponents!
In “safe” districts, the only competitive races are the primaries of the dominant party, for which highly partisan voters are the most likely to turnout…handicapping candidates seeking to build consensus in favor of “scorched-earth” candidates focused on besmirching the character of their opponents—and even their opponents’ supporters—to fire up their base. Once in office, the winners of these races are incentivized to prioritize performative politics over serious governing and to avoid compromise for fear of losing to an even more partisan challenger in the next primary.
“Safe” districts effectively disenfranchise many voters. In a district that is split 71%-29%, the 29% minority party voters may as well not show up on election day, as their candidate has no chance to win. And even if they all show up and vote, it only takes 30% to beat them…so the rest of the majority party supporters may as well stay home on election day, too. In effect, 70% of all voters are disenfranchised, because their votes cannot affect the result.
And it gets worse. In many “safe” districts, the minority party does not even bother to run a candidate. Out of 19 Wake County NCGA seats, both establishment parties have 2024 candidates in only 11! Statewide, in 2024 there are 35 NCGA districts where either the Ds or Rs are not fielding a candidate. So in over 20% of our state, not only are voters denied the opportunity to cast a meaningful vote, but they don’t even get to experience a discussion of the issues, with only one establishment party candidate running.